Marvin Jones Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Marvin Jones

NFL · Player Props

Marvin Jones

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 14, 2022 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Marvin Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.5% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Jaguars are a huge 9.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 6th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 63.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 137.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.

Favors Under

Marvin Jones has been less involved as a potential target this season (82.9% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (93.4%).
Marvin Jones's play as a receiver has worsened this year, averaging just 3.3 yards per game vs 4.3 last year.
Marvin Jones's possession skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 63.4% to 55.9%.
The Kansas City Chiefs cornerbacks project as the 10th-best CB corps in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Kansas City Chiefs pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the fastest in football since the start of last season.

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