Marvin Jones Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Marvin Jones

NFL · Player Props

Marvin Jones

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 5:06 PM EST

Analysis

Marvin Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (-104/-131).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 35.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 34.5 @ -131.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 4th-fastest paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 27.41 seconds per play.
Marvin Jones has compiled a whopping 80.0 air yards per game this year: 85th percentile among WRs.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has allowed the 2nd-highest Completion% in football (71.9%) vs. wide receivers this year (71.9%).

Favors Under

Marvin Jones's 46.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 53.5.
Marvin Jones has put up a lot fewer receiving yards per game (39.0) this year than he did last year (51.0).
Marvin Jones's sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 63.4% to 53.8%.
Marvin Jones's pass-catching effectiveness has tailed off this season, accumulating just 6.62 yards-per-target compared to a 7.62 rate last season.
Marvin Jones has been among the worst WRs in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a mere 2.77 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 20th percentile.

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