Marvin Jones Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 19

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Marvin Jones

NFL · Player Props

Marvin Jones

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 19, 2022

Updated Jan 19, 2023 4:28 PM UTC

Analysis

Marvin Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (+110/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 29.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 25.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.8% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Jaguars have been the 9th-most pass-oriented team in football (adjusted for context) this year with a 62.1% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line has given their QB 2.56 seconds before getting pressured (5th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all passing game statistics across the board.

Favors Under

Opposing offenses have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: least in the NFL.
Marvin Jones has accumulated quite a few less air yards this year (71.0 per game) than he did last year (84.0 per game).
Marvin Jones's 41.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this year than it was last year at 53.5.
Marvin Jones has compiled substantially fewer receiving yards per game (34.0) this season than he did last season (51.0).
Marvin Jones's possession skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 63.5% to 57.2%.

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