Marvin Jones Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Marvin Jones

NFL · Player Props

Marvin Jones

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 7:38 PM UTC

Analysis

Marvin Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 41.5 (-101/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 46.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 41.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.7% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Jaguars are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 9th-most pass-oriented team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 63.1% pass rate.
The Jacksonville Jaguars offense has played at the 4th-fastest pace in the league (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, averaging 25.82 seconds per play.
Marvin Jones has run a route on 93.4% of his offense's dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking in the 93rd percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

Marvin Jones has been among the weakest wide receivers in the league at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a lowly 2.11 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while ranking in the 2nd percentile.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have utilized motion in their offense on 33.0% of their play-calls since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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