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Marvin Jones

Marvin Jones Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 9

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Las Vegas Raiders

Marvin Jones Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+297/-524).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +317 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +297.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 4th-fastest paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 27.41 seconds per play.

THE BLITZ projects Marvin Jones to be a more integral piece of his offense's passing attack near the goal line this week (17.4% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (12.1% in games he has played).

Marvin Jones has compiled a whopping 80.0 air yards per game this year: 85th percentile among WRs.

The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.

The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has allowed the 2nd-highest Completion% in football (71.9%) vs. wide receivers this year (71.9%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Marvin Jones's 46.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 53.5.

Marvin Jones's sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 63.4% to 53.8%.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have utilized motion in their offense on 33.0% of their plays since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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