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Marvin Jones

Marvin Jones Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 8

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Denver Broncos

Marvin Jones Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+376/-769).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -744 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -769.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the 2nd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

Opposing QBs have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game against the Denver Broncos defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.

THE BLITZ projects Marvin Jones to be much more involved in his offense's pass game near the goal line this week (19.8% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (9.7% in games he has played).

Marvin Jones has accrued far more air yards this year (89.0 per game) than he did last year (84.0 per game).

Marvin Jones's 48.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the league: 78th percentile for wideouts.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.

Marvin Jones's sure-handedness have worsened this year, with his Completion% falling off from 63.4% to 57.3%.

The Denver Broncos defense has given up the least TDs through the air in the NFL to wideouts: 0.14 per game this year.

The Denver Broncos safeties profile as the 2nd-best group of safeties in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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