Marquise Goodwin Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Marquise Goodwin

WR · Seattle Seahawks

Receptions

Seattle Seahawks vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 6:00 PM EST

Analysis

Marquise Goodwin Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+100/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has surrendered the 2nd-highest Completion% in football (70.5%) vs. wideouts since the start of last season (70.5%).
The Atlanta Falcons safeties profile as the 5th-worst unit in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Seattle Seahawks have gone no-huddle on 15.5% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-most in the league). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.

Favors Under

The Seattle Seahawks have run the least plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a mere 54.7 plays per game.
The Seattle Seahawks offensive line grades out as the 8th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The Atlanta Falcons defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 9th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Seattle Seahawks have faced a stacked the box on a mere 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in football. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.