Marquise Brown Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Marquise Brown

NFL · Player Props

Marquise Brown

WR · Arizona Cardinals

Receptions

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 4, 2023 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Marquise Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-166/+130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -152 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -166.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cardinals are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Arizona Cardinals offense to be the 2nd-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 26.17 seconds per play.
Marquise Brown has run a route on 93.7% of his offense's passing plays this year, placing him in the 92nd percentile among wideouts.
Our trusted projections expect Marquise Brown to total 8.0 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 87th percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

The Cardinals boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 1.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The model projects the Cardinals as the 8th-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 56.4% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The Cardinals O-line ranks as the 5th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
Marquise Brown's 4.3 adjusted receptions per game this year conveys a substantial decline in his pass-catching ability over last year's 5.4 rate.
Marquise Brown's receiving reliability have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 62.8% to 55.7%.

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