Marquise Brown Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Marquise Brown

NFL · Player Props

Marquise Brown

WR · Arizona Cardinals

Receptions

Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 26, 2023 9:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Marquise Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -210 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.
With a remarkable 94.5% Route% (95th percentile) this year, Marquise Brown ranks among the WRs with the highest volume in football.
The model projects Marquise Brown to garner 7.6 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 82nd percentile among wideouts.
The Rams linebackers profile as the 2nd-worst unit in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Cardinals offensive strategy to skew 2.4% more towards the run game than it did last season (context-neutralized) with head coach Jonathan Gannon now calling the plays.
Right now, the 8th-least pass-heavy team in the NFL (58.9% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Arizona Cardinals.
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Cardinals are forecasted by the projection model to run only 64.1 offensive plays in this contest: the 10th-lowest number among all teams this week.
The Arizona offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful influence on all air attack metrics across the board.
Marquise Brown's 4.1 adjusted receptions per game this season shows an impressive regression in his pass-catching talent over last season's 5.4 figure.

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