Marquise Brown Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 16

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Marquise Brown

WR · Arizona Cardinals

Receptions

Arizona Cardinals vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 26, 2022 1:06 AM EST

Analysis

Marquise Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+142/-184).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -138 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -184.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Arizona Cardinals will be forced to start backup QB Trace McSorley in this week's contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Cardinals are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals as the 4th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 63.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 138.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Arizona Cardinals have run the 3rd-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 62.6 plays per game.

Favors Under

Marquise Brown has been a much bigger part of his team's offense this year, playing on 94.8% of snaps compared to just 79.8% last year.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has given up the 6th-lowest Completion% in football (63.6%) versus wide receivers this year (63.6%).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerbacks project as the 7th-best collection of CBs in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Arizona Cardinals O-line has allowed their quarterback a mere 2.34 seconds before getting pressured (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
The Arizona Cardinals have faced a stacked the box on a measly 9.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.