Marquise Brown Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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NFL · Player Props

Marquise Brown

WR · Arizona Cardinals

Receptions

Arizona Cardinals vs New England Patriots · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 13, 2022 3:51 AM EST

Analysis

Marquise Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+125/-180).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -155 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -180.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals to be the 8th-most pass-centric offense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 64.2% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Arizona Cardinals have called the 2nd-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 63.2 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.7 pass attempts per game against the New England Patriots defense this year: 9th-most in football.

Favors Under

Marquise Brown has been a more important option in his team's offense this season, staying on the field for 95.2% of snaps compared to just 79.8% last season.
The New England Patriots pass defense has surrendered the 7th-lowest Completion% in the league (63.3%) vs. WRs this year (63.3%).
The New England Patriots safeties grade out as the 4th-best unit in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Arizona Cardinals O-line has allowed their quarterback just 2.34 seconds before getting pressured (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Arizona Cardinals have gone up against a stacked the box on just 9.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.