Marquise Brown Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Marquise Brown

WR · Arizona Cardinals

Receiving TD

Carolina Panthers vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:00 PM EST

Analysis

Marquise Brown Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+206/-310).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -264 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -310.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals offense to be the 6th-quickest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 26.50 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Marquise Brown to be a much bigger part of his offense's passing game near the goal line this week (23.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (18.2% in games he has played).
Marquise Brown has put up a monstrous 106.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 98th percentile among wide receivers.
Marquise Brown's 67.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in football: 90th percentile for WRs.
Marquise Brown's ball-catching skills have been refined this season, with his Completion% increasing from 65.8% to 71.1%.

Favors Under

The Arizona Cardinals have played in the 6th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which should result in reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced offense results when facing windier conditions in this week's game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game versus the Carolina Panthers defense since the start of last season: 3rd-least in the league.
The Carolina Panthers defensive tackles profile as the 7th-best collection of DTs in the league since the start of last season in regard to pass rush.
The Arizona Cardinals O-line has allowed their quarterback a measly 2.34 seconds before getting pressured (2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
The Carolina Panthers defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the fastest in the league since the start of last season.