Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Marquez Valdes-Scantling

NFL · Player Props

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

WR · New Orleans Saints

Receptions

New Orleans Saints vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 17, 2024

Updated Dec 29, 2024 5:26 PM EST

Analysis

Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-120/-108).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by the projections to have 138.8 total plays run: the highest number among all games this week.
The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may go down.
The model projects Marquez Valdes-Scantling to be a more important option in his team's passing offense in this week's game (19.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (10.1% in games he has played).
As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Las Vegas's group of LBs has been dreadful this year, profiling as the 2nd-worst in football.

Favors Under

The model projects the New Orleans Saints as the 10th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 54.7% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints O-line grades out as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative influence on all pass game metrics across the board.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling comes in as one of the bottom WRs in the game this year, averaging a lowly 1.4 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 15th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
With a bad 49.7% Adjusted Completion Rate (18th percentile) this year, Marquez Valdes-Scantling ranks as one of the most unreliable receivers in football among wide receivers.

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