Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

NFL · Player Props

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-156/+122).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -158 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -156.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 65.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 136.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling has been less involved as a potential target this season (81.8% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (71.4%).
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling's receiving skills have improved this season, notching 3.7 yards per game vs a measly 2.4 last season.

Favors Under

The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.6 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 8th-least in the league.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers grade out as the best group of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked the box on just 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a mere 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.