Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receiving Yards

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NFL · Player Props

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 18, 2023 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-130/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 4th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 62.0% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling's 4.74 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season represents a remarkable growth in his efficiency in picking up extra yardage over last season's 3.3% rate.
This year, the weak Patriots pass defense has surrendered a monstrous 66.8% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing WRs: the 10th-biggest rate in the league.
The New England cornerbacks project as the 9th-worst unit in the league this year in defending receivers.

Favors Under

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Chiefs are favored in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on rushing than their usual game plan.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling has been a less important option in his team's pass attack this year (7.7% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (12.8%).
Marquez Valdes-Scantling has compiled quite a few less air yards this season (49.0 per game) than he did last season (66.0 per game).
Marquez Valdes-Scantling's 22.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this year reflects a noteable regression in his receiving talent over last year's 40.0 rate.
With a feeble 54.0% Adjusted Completion% (22nd percentile) this year, Marquez Valdes-Scantling has been among the most unreliable receivers in the NFL when it comes to WRs.