Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Marquez Valdes-Scantling

NFL · Player Props

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving TD

Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+249/-404).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +255 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +249.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the 10th-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 8th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 59.8 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling's receiving reliability have been refined this year, with his Completion% jumping from 54.0% to 59.9%.
The Houston Texans safeties grade out as the worst group of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a massive 14.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.5 pass attempts per game against the Houston Texans defense this year: 5th-least in the league.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling has put up significantly fewer air yards this year (64.0 per game) than he did last year (81.0 per game).
Marquez Valdes-Scantling grades out in the 20th percentile among wide receivers when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging a measly 0.08 per game.
The Houston Texans pass defense has surrendered the 4th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (62.3%) vs. WRs this year (62.3%).

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