Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Marquez Valdes-Scantling

NFL · Player Props

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving TD

Cincinnati Bengals vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+229/-360).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -315 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -360.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 133.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 60.7 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling's possession skills have gotten better this year, with his Completion% rising from 54.0% to 61.4%.
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line has afforded their quarterback 2.60 seconds before getting pressured (best in the league since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

Favors Under

Marquez Valdes-Scantling has accrued far fewer air yards this year (59.0 per game) than he did last year (81.0 per game).
Marquez Valdes-Scantling's 33.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 40.7.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling ranks in the 23rd percentile among WRs when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging a mere 0.09 per game.
The Cincinnati Bengals defense has given up the 3rd-least passing touchdowns in the league to WRs: 0.55 per game this year.
The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers project as the 5th-best LB corps in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

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