Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Marquez Valdes-Scantling

NFL · Player Props

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving TD

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+234/-369).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -364 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -369.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 5th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 67.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling's possession skills have been refined this season, with his Completion% jumping from 53.9% to 59.5%.
The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has given up the 8th-highest Completion% in the NFL (69.5%) vs. wideouts this year (69.5%).
The Los Angeles Rams defense has yielded the 6th-most passing touchdowns in the NFL to WRs: 1.00 per game this year.
The Los Angeles Rams safeties grade out as the 9th-worst unit in the league this year in pass coverage.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 10th-least in the NFL.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling has accumulated far fewer air yards this year (59.0 per game) than he did last year (81.0 per game).
Marquez Valdes-Scantling's 32.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 40.7.
The Los Angeles Rams pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.

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