Marquez Callaway Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Marquez Callaway

WR · New Orleans Saints

Receiving TD

New Orleans Saints vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Marquez Callaway Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+303/-541).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +347 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +303.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 3rd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Marquez Callaway to be much more involved in his team's pass attack near the end zone this week (13.8% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (5.6% in games he has played).
The New Orleans Saints offensive line ranks as the best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Marquez Callaway ranks in the 85th percentile among wideouts as it relates to catching TDs since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 0.37 per game.

Favors Under

The Saints are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.8 pass attempts per game versus the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 7th-least in football.
Marquez Callaway has put up far fewer air yards this season (25.0 per game) than he did last season (64.0 per game).
Marquez Callaway's 12.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this year than it was last year at 46.9.
Marquez Callaway has been among the most hard-handed receivers in the league, hauling in just 56.6% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 9th percentile among wide receivers