Mark Ingram Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Mark Ingram

NFL · Player Props

Mark Ingram

RB · New Orleans Saints

Rushing TD

Arizona Cardinals vs New Orleans Saints · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 20, 2022 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Mark Ingram Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+420/-932).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -926 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -932.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 130.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints O-line grades out as the 5th-best in the league this year at blocking for the run game.
Opposing squads have run for the 10th-most TDs in football (1.00 per game) against the Arizona Cardinals defense this year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects Mark Ingram to be a less important option in his team's running game near the end zone this week (15.2% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (26.3% in games he has played).
The Arizona Cardinals safeties grade out as the 2nd-best safety corps in football this year with their run defense.
The New Orleans Saints have faced a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on just 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in football). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
The New Orleans Saints have gone for it on 4th down a mere 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.

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