Mark Andrews Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+292/-335).
Key Factors
Favors Over
The Baltimore Ravens will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Tyler Huntley in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Browns defense has been something of pass funnel this year, inducing opposing QBs to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (39.4 per game) this year.
After totaling 31.0 air yards per game last year, Mark Andrews has posted big gains this year, currently boasting 40.0 per game.
Mark Andrews's 47.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 35.8.
Opposing squads have rushed for the fewest touchdowns in football (0.20 per game) against the Cleveland Browns defense this year.
Favors Under
This game's spread implies a rushing game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 3 points.
Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens to pass on 49.1% of their plays: the lowest rate on the slate this week.
The leading projections forecast the Ravens to be the 3rd-most run-centric offense in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 50.2% red zone run rate.
The projections expect this game to have the 5th-fewest plays run among all games this week at 127.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect Mark Andrews to be much less involved in his team's pass attack near the end zone in this week's game (23.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (30.0% in games he has played).