Mark Andrews Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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NFL · Player Props

Mark Andrews

TE · Baltimore Ravens

Receptions

Baltimore Ravens vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 9, 2026

Updated Nov 5, 2026 8:48 PM EST

Analysis

Mark Andrews Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-111/+108).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +108 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -9.5-point disadvantage, the Ravens are big underdogs in this week's game, implying much more of an emphasis on passing than their normal approach.
The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may drop.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, compelling opposing teams to attempt the 9th-most passes in the NFL (37.0 per game) this year.
In this week's contest, Mark Andrews is forecasted by the projections to find himself in the 87th percentile when it comes to TEs with 5.8 targets.
Mark Andrews has been a big part of his team's pass game, garnering a Target Share of 19.2% this year, which ranks in the 91st percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Baltimore Ravens to be the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 55.7% pass rate.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to have only 124.2 plays on offense called: the 2nd-lowest number out of all the games this week.
The 10th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Baltimore Ravens this year (a measly 55.5 per game on average).
The Ravens O-line profiles as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Mark Andrews's sure-handedness have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate falling off from 74.8% to 70.2%.