Mark Andrews Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Mark Andrews

NFL · Player Props

Mark Andrews

TE · Baltimore Ravens

Receptions

Baltimore Ravens vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 3:56 AM EST

Analysis

Mark Andrews Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-106/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +102 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Baltimore Ravens feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 3.2% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Seattle Seahawks defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, inducing opposing teams to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (39.0 per game) this year.
Our trusted projections expect Mark Andrews to earn 6.6 targets in this week's game, on balance, placing him in the 96th percentile among tight ends.
In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Ravens profiles as the 6th-best in football this year.
Mark Andrews has been one of the best TEs in the pass game this year, averaging an excellent 4.6 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 94th percentile.

Favors Under

This week's spread suggests a rushing game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 5.5 points.
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Ravens to pass on 50.2% of their opportunities: the 2nd-lowest rate on the slate this week.
At the moment, the 2nd-most sluggish paced team in football (in a neutral context) according to the model is the Ravens.
Mark Andrews's 49.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 69.0.

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