Mark Andrews Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Mark Andrews

NFL · Player Props

Mark Andrews

TE · Baltimore Ravens

Receptions

Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 5:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Mark Andrews Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-150/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -145 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Baltimore Ravens will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and The leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 2.4% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 130.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Mark Andrews has run a route on 92.8% of his team's dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking in the 100th percentile among tight ends.
The projections expect Mark Andrews to earn 7.5 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 98th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
The Baltimore Ravens O-line profiles as the 2nd-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens as the 4th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 52.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 29.6 pass attempts per game against the Cleveland Browns defense since the start of last season: 3rd-fewest in football.
The Browns pass defense has allowed the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (65.7%) vs. TEs since the start of last season (65.7%).
The Cleveland Browns safeties rank as the 8th-best collection of safeties in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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