Mark Andrews Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Mark Andrews

NFL · Player Props

Mark Andrews

TE · Baltimore Ravens

Receptions

Baltimore Ravens vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 5:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Mark Andrews Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-120/-104).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ +104 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Baltimore Ravens boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.8% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 134.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Mark Andrews has run a route on 93.3% of his team's dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking in the 100th percentile among tight ends.
THE BLITZ projects Mark Andrews to accrue 7.5 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 98th percentile among TEs.
The Baltimore Ravens offensive line ranks as the 3rd-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all pass game stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Ravens are a massive 7.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens as the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 49.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense since the start of last season: 8th-least in the NFL.
Mark Andrews's receiving reliability have tailed off this year, with his Completion% falling off from 65.7% to 62.1%.

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