Mark Andrews Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Mark Andrews

NFL · Player Props

Mark Andrews

TE · Baltimore Ravens

Receptions

Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 18, 2023 2:56 AM EST

Analysis

Mark Andrews Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-165/+125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -145 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Baltimore Ravens boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.4% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Ravens are a 3.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Mark Andrews to earn 7.8 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 98th percentile among tight ends.
The Baltimore Ravens O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all air attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Ravens have been the 7th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 55.1% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens offense to be the 6th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 29.22 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Mark Andrews to be much less involved in his team's pass attack this week (24.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (29.9% in games he has played).
Mark Andrews has been among the worst possession receivers in football among tight ends, hauling in just 65.7% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, ranking in the 18th percentile.

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