Marcus Mariota Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Marcus Mariota

NFL · Player Props

Marcus Mariota

QB · Washington Commanders

Touchdowns

Washington Commanders vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 3:47 PM EST

Analysis

Marcus Mariota Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+413/-456).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders will be starting backup quarterback Marcus Mariota in this week's game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Commanders are a 5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
At the present time, the 7th-quickest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Commanders.
Opposing QBs have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game against the Colts defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in football.
Marcus Mariota's 65.9% Adjusted Completion% this season marks a substantial growth in his throwing precision over last season's 62.3% mark.

Favors Under

At the present time, the 5th-least pass-oriented offense in the NFL (58.0% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Commanders.
The predictive model expects Marcus Mariota to be a more important option in his offense's running game near the end zone this week (16.9% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (9.5% in games he has played).

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