Marcus Mariota TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Marcus Mariota

QB · Washington Commanders

TD Passes

Washington Commanders vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 8:32 PM EST

Analysis

Marcus Mariota TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-162/+150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +142 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders will be rolling with backup QB Marcus Mariota this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Commanders are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
Opposing offenses have averaged 35.7 pass attempts per game against the Seattle Seahawks defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Washington Commanders to pass on 53.5% of their downs: the 9th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
At the present time, the 5th-least pass-centric team in the league near the end zone (52.6% context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Washington Commanders.
Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Washington Commanders are predicted by our trusted projection set to run just 60.4 total plays in this contest: the 2nd-lowest number among all teams this week.
The 7th-fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the Commanders since the start of last season (a measly 54.7 per game on average).
Windy weather conditions (like the 17-mph being forecasted in this game) typically mean worse passing effectiveness, reduced pass volume, and increased ground volume.