Marcus Mariota TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Marcus Mariota

NFL · Player Props

Marcus Mariota

QB · Atlanta Falcons

TD Passes

Atlanta Falcons vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM EST

Analysis

Marcus Mariota TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-271/+189).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -252 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -271.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.7 pass attempts per game against the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 7th-most in football.
The Atlanta Falcons O-line grades out as the 9th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has yielded the most TDs through the air in the NFL: 2.00 per game this year.
The Pittsburgh Steelers cornerbacks profile as the 6th-worst CB corps in football this year in pass coverage.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 2nd-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 49.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the least pass-heavy offense in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 45.9% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 125.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the 2nd-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 52.8 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Marcus Mariota to attempt 28.3 passes this week, on average: the 2nd-least of all quarterbacks.

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