Marcus Mariota TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Marcus Mariota

QB · Atlanta Falcons

TD Passes

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Marcus Mariota TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+186/-245).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -250 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -245.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Falcons are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The New Orleans Saints defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-worst in football since the start of last season.
The Atlanta Falcons have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Atlanta Falcons have incorporated some form of misdirection on 53.2% of their play-calls since the start of last season (7th-most in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more unpredictable and more effective.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 6th-least pass-oriented team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 59.2% pass rate.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the 2nd-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 58.5 plays per game.
Marcus Mariota has attempted a mere 0.3 throws per game since the start of last season, grading out in the 1st percentile among QBs.
The Atlanta Falcons offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
Marcus Mariota has been among the weakest TD throwers in the league since the start of last season, averaging a terrible 0.00 per game while checking in at the 1st percentile.