Marcus Mariota Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Marcus Mariota

QB · Washington Commanders

Rushing Yards

Washington Commanders vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 7:57 PM EST

Analysis

Marcus Mariota Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-108/-102).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 21.5 @ -122 before it was bet up to 23.5 @ -108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Commanders as the 9th-most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 46.5% run rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Windy weather conditions (like the 17-mph being forecasted in this game) typically mean worse passing effectiveness, reduced pass volume, and increased ground volume.
Our trusted projections expect Marcus Mariota to notch 5.5 rush attempts in this week's game, on average: the 8th-most out of all quarterbacks.
While Marcus Mariota has received 13.8% of his team's rush attempts in games he has played since the start of last season, the leading projections forecast him to be a more integral piece of Washington's running game in this week's game at 19.7%.
As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in stopping the run, Seattle's unit has been lousy since the start of last season, projecting as the 8th-worst in the league. in the league.

Favors Under

The Commanders will be rolling with backup QB Marcus Mariota this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Commanders are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Washington Commanders are predicted by our trusted projection set to run just 60.4 total plays in this contest: the 2nd-lowest number among all teams this week.
The 7th-fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the Commanders since the start of last season (a measly 54.7 per game on average).
Since the start of last season, the porous Seattle Seahawks run defense has surrendered a staggering 3.49 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to the opposing ground game: the 32nd-worst rate in football.