Marcus Mariota Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Marcus Mariota

NFL · Player Props

Marcus Mariota

QB · Atlanta Falcons

Rushing Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Marcus Mariota Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (+102/-136).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 24.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 24.5 @ -136.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 6th-most run-centric offense in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 40.8% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects Marcus Mariota to accrue 4.5 rush attempts this week, on average: the 10th-most of all QBs.
THE BLITZ projects Marcus Mariota to be a more integral piece of his offense's running game this week (18.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (6.4% in games he has played).
Marcus Mariota's rushing effectiveness (8.10 yards per carry) has been some of the best in football since the start of last season (96th percentile among quarterbacks).
The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Falcons are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the 2nd-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 58.5 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The New Orleans Saints defense has had the best efficiency against opposing run games since the start of last season, yielding just 3.80 yards-per-carry.
The New Orleans Saints defensive ends profile as the 2nd-best collection of DEs in the league since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.

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