Marcus Mariota Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Marcus Mariota

NFL · Player Props

Marcus Mariota

QB · Atlanta Falcons

Rushing TD

Cincinnati Bengals vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 5:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Marcus Mariota Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+243/-382).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -339 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -382.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the most run-centric offense in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 49.4% red zone run rate.
Marcus Mariota isn't afraid to run the ball near the end zone, accounting for 25.7% of his [OFFENSE_TEAMS]'s red zone carries this year (94th percentile among QBs).
The Atlanta Falcons offensive line ranks as the 6th-best in the NFL this year at blocking for rushers.
Marcus Mariota has rushed for 0.33 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest marks in the league among quarterbacks (95th percentile).
The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers rank as the 7th-worst group of LBs in the league this year with their run defense.

Favors Under

The Falcons are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons offense to be the 8th-slowest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 29.39 seconds per play.
Opposing squads have run for the 2nd-least TDs in the league (0.33 per game) vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year.
The Atlanta Falcons have gone up against a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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