Marcus Mariota Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Marcus Mariota

NFL · Player Props

Marcus Mariota

QB · Atlanta Falcons

Rushing TD

Atlanta Falcons vs Cleveland Browns · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Marcus Mariota Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+211/-322).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -285 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -322.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 7th-most run-centric team in football near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 44.9% red zone run rate.
Marcus Mariota isn't afraid to run the ball himself near the end zone, accounting for 33.3% of his [OFFENSE_TEAMS]'s red zone carries this year (97th percentile among QBs).
Marcus Mariota has run for 0.20 touchdowns per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the largest figures in the NFL among quarterbacks (89th percentile).
The Cleveland Browns defensive tackles rank as the 6th-worst DT corps in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to run defense.
The Atlanta Falcons have used some form of misdirection on 53.2% of their play-calls since the start of last season (7th-most in the NFL), which masks an offenses true intentions and may make them more effective.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Falcons to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have called the 2nd-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a mere 55.1 plays per game.
The Atlanta Falcons have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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