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Marcus Mariota

Marcus Mariota Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 1

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints

Marcus Mariota Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+231/-380).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +300 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +231.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects Marcus Mariota to be a more important option in his team's rushing attack near the end zone this week (23.0% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (12.5% in games he has played).

Marcus Mariota has rushed for 0.14 touchdowns per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the biggest marks in football among QBs (75th percentile).

The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

The Atlanta Falcons have incorporated some form of misdirection on 53.2% of their play-calls since the start of last season (7th-most in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more unpredictable and more effective.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Falcons are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.

The Falcons rank as the 10th-least run-centric team in the NFL near the end zone (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 39.9% red zone run rate.

The Atlanta Falcons have run the 2nd-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 58.5 plays per game.

Opposing squads have run for the 6th-least touchdowns in the NFL (0.71 per game) against the New Orleans Saints defense since the start of last season.

The New Orleans Saints defensive ends profile as the 2nd-best collection of DEs in the league since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.

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