Marcus Mariota Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Marcus Mariota

QB · Washington Commanders

Passing Yards

Washington Commanders vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 8:32 PM EST

Analysis

Marcus Mariota Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 164.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 168.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 164.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders will be rolling with backup QB Marcus Mariota this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Commanders are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
Opposing offenses have averaged 35.7 pass attempts per game against the Seattle Seahawks defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Washington Commanders to pass on 53.5% of their downs: the 9th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Washington Commanders are predicted by our trusted projection set to run just 60.4 total plays in this contest: the 2nd-lowest number among all teams this week.
The 7th-fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the Commanders since the start of last season (a measly 54.7 per game on average).
Windy weather conditions (like the 17-mph being forecasted in this game) typically mean worse passing effectiveness, reduced pass volume, and increased ground volume.
This week, Marcus Mariota is expected by the model to total the 2nd-fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 29.3.