Marcus Mariota Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Marcus Mariota

QB · Atlanta Falcons

Passing Yards

Los Angeles Rams vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 11:25 PM EST

Analysis

Marcus Mariota Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 215.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 213.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 215.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Falcons are a huge 10.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 37.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Rams defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in the league.
The Los Angeles Rams defense has been particularly weak when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 5.51 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 10th-most in football.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 7th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 58.7% pass rate.
The Atlanta Falcons have called the 2nd-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a measly 59.2 plays per game.
Marcus Mariota has attempted a mere 4.4 passes per game since the start of last season, checking in at the 3rd percentile among QBs.
The Atlanta Falcons offensive line profiles as the 4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
Marcus Mariota has been among the weakest quarterbacks in football since the start of last season, averaging 26.0 yards per game while ranking in the 3rd percentile.