Marcus Mariota Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Marcus Mariota

QB · Atlanta Falcons

Completions

Los Angeles Rams vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 11:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Marcus Mariota Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-110/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 19.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 18.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Falcons are a huge 10.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 37.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Rams defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in the league.
The Atlanta Falcons have been faced with a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 7th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 58.7% pass rate.
The Atlanta Falcons have called the 2nd-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a measly 59.2 plays per game.
Marcus Mariota has attempted a mere 4.4 passes per game since the start of last season, checking in at the 3rd percentile among QBs.
The Atlanta Falcons offensive line profiles as the 4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
The Los Angeles Rams cornerbacks project as the 2nd-best collection of CBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.