Marcus Mariota Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 4

reorder

We’re hiring: Junior AI Product & Automation Engineer — Freelance → Learn More

NFL · Player Props

Marcus Mariota

QB · Washington Commanders

Carries

Washington Commanders vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 3:47 PM EST

Analysis

Marcus Mariota Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-180/+135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -160 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -180.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Right now, the 5th-most run-centric team in football (42.0% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Washington Commanders.
At the present time, the 7th-quickest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Commanders.
Marcus Mariota has averaged 3.7 carries per game since the start of last season, one of the biggest rates in the NFL among quarterbacks (79th percentile).
The Indianapolis Colts safeties project as the 30th-worst group of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.

Favors Under

The Washington Commanders will be starting backup quarterback Marcus Mariota in this week's game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Commanders are a 5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
After accounting for 14.8% of his team's run game usage last season, Marcus Mariota has had a smaller role in the running game this season, now accounting for just 7.0%.