Marcus Mariota Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Marcus Mariota

NFL · Player Props

Marcus Mariota

QB · Atlanta Falcons

Carries

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Marcus Mariota Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-115/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 7th-most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 44.4% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Marcus Mariota to accumulate 6.6 carries in this game, on average: the 6th-most of all QBs.
THE BLITZ projects Marcus Mariota to be a much bigger part of his offense's running game this week (22.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (13.3% in games he has played).
The Atlanta Falcons offensive line grades out as the best in the NFL this year at opening holes for runners.

Favors Under

The Falcons are a giant 10-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the 5th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 53.2 plays per game.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties grade out as the 2nd-best group of safeties in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.
The Atlanta Falcons have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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