Marcedes Lewis Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Marcedes Lewis

NFL · Player Props

Marcedes Lewis

TE · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Marcedes Lewis Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 3rd-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 64.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 36.2 pass attempts per game versus the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season: 8th-most in football.
The Green Bay Packers O-line ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all passing offense stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Minnesota Vikings pass defense has surrendered the 5th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (64.2%) vs. tight ends since the start of last season (64.2%).
The Minnesota Vikings linebackers project as the 7th-best unit in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Green Bay Packers offensive line has allowed their QB a mere 2.44 seconds before the pass (3rd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

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