Malik Willis Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Malik Willis

NFL · Player Props

Malik Willis

QB · Miami Dolphins

Touchdowns

Miami Dolphins vs Detroit Lions · Week 9, 2026

Updated Nov 8, 2026 1:22 PM EST

Analysis

Malik Willis Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+277/-300).

Key Factors

Favors Over

An extreme throwing game script is indicated by the Dolphins being a massive -7-point underdog in this week's game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 44.1 pass attempts per game against the Lions defense this year: most in the league.
This year, the feeble Detroit Lions defense has been gouged for a colossal 2.57 passing touchdowns per game to opposing teams: the worst rate in football.
When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in defending against the run, Detroit's DT corps has been outstanding this year, projecting as the 10th-best in the NFL.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Dolphins to pass on 54.1% of their downs: the 6th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
At the moment, the 2nd-most run-focused team in the league near the end zone (50.7% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Miami Dolphins.
Right now, the 6th-most sluggish paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Miami Dolphins.
The leading projections forecast Malik Willis to throw 31.8 passes this week, on average: the 8th-fewest out of all QBs.
The predictive model expects Malik Willis to be a more important option in his offense's ground game near the goal line in this week's game (16.6% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (7.1% in games he has played).

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