Malik Willis Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Malik Willis

NFL · Player Props

Malik Willis

QB · Miami Dolphins

Touchdowns

New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins · Week 7, 2026

Updated Oct 25, 2026 3:42 PM EST

Analysis

Malik Willis Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+365/-376).

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Dolphins are underdogs in this week's contest, implying more of a focus on throwing than their typical game plan.
The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being called for in this game, while ground volume may slide.
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 6th-fewest TDs in the NFL (0.67 per game) against the New York Jets defense this year.
The New York Jets safeties profile as the best unit in the league this year in regard to run defense.

Favors Under

The model projects the Dolphins as the least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 51.7% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect the Miami Dolphins to be the 2nd-most run-focused offense in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 50.8% red zone run rate.
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Dolphins are anticipated by the projection model to call only 60.8 total plays in this contest: the fewest on the slate this week.
The 2nd-smallest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Miami Dolphins this year (a lowly 51.6 per game on average).
The model projects Malik Willis to throw 28.5 passes in this game, on balance: the fewest out of all QBs.

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