Malik Willis TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Malik Willis

NFL · Player Props

Malik Willis

QB · Miami Dolphins

TD Passes

New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins · Week 7, 2026

Updated Oct 25, 2026 3:42 PM EST

Analysis

Malik Willis TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-210/+158).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -198 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -210.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Dolphins are underdogs in this week's contest, implying more of a focus on throwing than their typical game plan.
The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being called for in this game, while ground volume may slide.

Favors Under

The model projects the Dolphins as the least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 51.7% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The model projects the Dolphins to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 49.2% red zone pass rate.
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Dolphins are anticipated by the projection model to call only 60.8 total plays in this contest: the fewest on the slate this week.
The 2nd-smallest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Miami Dolphins this year (a lowly 51.6 per game on average).
The model projects Malik Willis to throw 28.5 passes in this game, on balance: the fewest out of all QBs.

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