Malik Willis TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Malik Willis

QB · Miami Dolphins

TD Passes

Miami Dolphins vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 11, 2026 4:27 PM EST

Analysis

Malik Willis TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-230/+170).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -180 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -230.

Key Factors

Favors Over

An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Dolphins being a heavy -7-point underdog this week.
The Bengals defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 10th-most passes in football (37.2 per game) this year.
The Cincinnati cornerbacks profile as the 7th-worst unit in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Dolphins to pass on 53.1% of their downs: the 3rd-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
At the present time, the 4th-least pass-heavy offense in football in the red zone (51.3% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Miami Dolphins.
Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Dolphins are anticipated by our trusted projection set to run only 59.9 plays on offense in this game: the lowest number on the slate this week.
The Miami Dolphins have run the fewest plays in football this year, totaling a mere 50.2 plays per game.
The projections expect Malik Willis to throw 28.5 passes in this week's contest, on average: the fewest among all quarterbacks.