Malik Willis TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Malik Willis

NFL · Player Props

Malik Willis

QB · Miami Dolphins

TD Passes

Las Vegas Raiders vs Miami Dolphins · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 13, 2026 4:27 PM EST

Analysis

Malik Willis TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-210/+182).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -200 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -210.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A passing game script is implied by the Dolphins being a -3-point underdog this week.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Malik Willis is positioned as one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the league last year with an outstanding 86.6% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 99th percentile.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 6th-highest rate in the league vs. the Las Vegas Raiders defense last year (73.2% Adjusted Completion%).

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Miami Dolphins to pass on 54.2% of their plays: the 3rd-lowest rate among all teams this week.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is expected by the model to see just 122.8 total plays called: the fewest among all games this week.
The 2nd-smallest volume of plays in football have been called by the Miami Dolphins last year (a mere 51.7 per game on average).
In this week's game, Malik Willis is predicted by the model to have the fewest pass attempts out of all QBs with 30.4.
Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Las Vegas Raiders, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 29.5 per game) last year.

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