Malik Willis Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Malik Willis

QB · Miami Dolphins

Rushing Yards

Miami Dolphins vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 11, 2026 3:42 PM EST

Analysis

Malik Willis Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 36.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 33.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Dolphins to run on 46.9% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest clip among all teams this week.
Our trusted projections expect Malik Willis to accrue 6.8 carries in this week's game, on balance: the 4th-most among all quarterbacks.
While Malik Willis has garnered 18.4% of his team's carries in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a more important option in Miami's running game in this week's game at 24.5%.
Since the start of last season, the daunting Cincinnati Bengals run defense has conceded a mere 5.14 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposition's running game: the 30th-lowest rate in the NFL.
The Bengals safeties grade out as the 28th-worst safety corps in football this year when it comes to run defense.

Favors Under

An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Dolphins being a heavy -7-point underdog this week.
Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Dolphins are anticipated by our trusted projection set to run only 59.9 plays on offense in this game: the lowest number on the slate this week.
The Miami Dolphins have run the fewest plays in football this year, totaling a mere 50.2 plays per game.
Malik Willis's rushing effectiveness has declined this year, accumulating a mere 2.40 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 7.40 mark last year.