Malik Willis Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Malik Willis

QB · Miami Dolphins

Rushing Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs Miami Dolphins · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 4:02 PM EST

Analysis

Malik Willis Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (-120/-122).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 30.5 @ -122 before it was bet down to 27.5 @ -122.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Right now, the 3rd-most run-oriented offense in the league (43.4% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Miami Dolphins.
In this game, Malik Willis is projected by the projection model to garner the 4th-most carries out of all quarterbacks with 6.5.
After comprising 15.0% of his team's run game usage last season, Malik Willis has been more involved in the run game this season, now sitting at 20.3%.
Malik Willis has averaged 25.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the biggest figures in football among quarterbacks (90th percentile).

Favors Under

At a -10-point disadvantage, the Dolphins are heavy underdogs in this game, indicating much more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their usual game plan.
The projections expect the Dolphins to call the fewest total plays on the slate this week with 60.4 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The Dolphins have run the 2nd-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 52.2 plays per game.
The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off.
Malik Willis's 2.31 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this season illustrates a meaningful regression in his rushing skills over last season's 7.40 mark.