Malik Willis Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Malik Willis

QB · Miami Dolphins

Rushing Yards

Miami Dolphins vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 2:33 PM EST

Analysis

Malik Willis Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-142/+119).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 19.5 @ +140 before it was bet up to 29.5 @ -142.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the present time, the most run-centric team in the NFL (44.3% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Miami Dolphins.
In this contest, Malik Willis is projected by our trusted projection set to total the 6th-most rush attempts among all quarterbacks with 6.0.
While Malik Willis has earned 15.1% of his offense's rush attempts in games he has played since the start of last season, the projections expect him to be a more integral piece of Miami's rushing attack in this week's contest at 22.2%.
With an excellent record of 26.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (92nd percentile), Malik Willis ranks among the best rushing quarterbacks in the NFL since the start of last season.
Malik Willis ranks as one of the top QBs in the NFL at grinding out extra ground yardage, averaging an outstanding 2.43 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 86th percentile.

Favors Under

At a -9.5-point disadvantage, the Dolphins are massive underdogs this week, indicating much more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their normal game plan.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is predicted by the model to see only 121.5 offensive plays called: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week.
The smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Dolphins since the start of last season (a lowly 51.6 per game on average).
The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Malik Willis's running effectiveness has diminished this season, averaging a measly 3.15 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 7.40 mark last season.