Malik Willis Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Malik Willis

QB · Miami Dolphins

Passing Yards

Miami Dolphins vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 4:27 PM EST

Analysis

Malik Willis Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 174.5 (-109/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 199.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 174.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -9.5-point disadvantage, the Dolphins are massive underdogs this week, indicating much more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their normal game plan.
The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 4th-highest level in football versus the Chiefs defense since the start of last season (74.8% Adjusted Completion%).
Since the start of last season, the anemic Chiefs defense has been gouged for the 10th-most yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing squads: a monstrous 0.51 YAC.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Miami Dolphins to pass on 55.4% of their downs: the 11th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is predicted by the model to see only 121.5 offensive plays called: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week.
The smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Dolphins since the start of last season (a lowly 51.6 per game on average).
The projections expect Malik Willis to attempt 30.4 passes in this contest, on average: the 4th-fewest among all quarterbacks.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Chiefs defense since the start of last season: 8th-fewest in the NFL.